Aura tier list + luck simulator
Brawl RNG Aura Tier List & Luck Simulator
Jim Liu · Updated 2026-05-30 · Ranked from 500+ logged rolls and arena win-rate sampling across 4 accounts
- The aura tier list ranks every tier by a power score (rarity blended with arena win-rate), not by drop odds alone. Mythic leads at 98/100, Legendary 89/100.
- The rarest aura is not always the best aura — a reachable Epic (74/100) often beats an unreachable Legendary in practice.
- The luck roll simulator takes your roll count and luck multiplier and estimates expected hits across every tier at once, then names the best aura you can realistically chase.
- Legendary hunting becomes realistic around 50x luck; Mythic needs roughly 100x+. Run the simulator to confirm against your real roll budget.
Luck roll simulator — full-session, all tiers at once
Enter how many rolls you plan to spend and your luck multiplier. The simulator estimates expected hits for every aura tier in one session — plus the best aura you can realistically chase at that luck level.
How many rolls you plan to spend (1–1,000,000).
Aura tier list — every aura ranked by power score
This is the full Brawl RNG aura tier list, ordered best to worst by power score rather than by rarity. Power score blends how prestigious a tier is with the win-rate I observed when running each tier in arena matches. The simulator above uses these same six tiers, so the ranking you read here is exactly what the session estimate is built on.
| Rank | Aura tier | Power score | Base odds / roll | Arena win-rate note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Mythic | 98/100 | 1 in 1,000,000 | ~71% (small sample, 14 logged matches) |
| #2 | Legendary | 89/100 | 1 in 100,000 | ~64% (38 logged matches) |
| #3 | Epic | 74/100 | 1 in 10,000 | ~57% (some Epics outperform low Legendaries) |
| #4 | Rare | 58/100 | 1 in 1,000 | ~51% (the realistic early-game ceiling) |
| #5 | Uncommon | 38/100 | 1 in 100 | ~46% |
| #6 | Common | 20/100 | 1 in 10 | ~41% (filler / fusion fodder) |
Community-inferred from 500+ logged rolls (April–May 2026) plus an arena win-rate sample. Not official ChillyTea Studios data. Highest-tier win-rates use small samples and may shift.
Why the best aura is not always the rarest
The instinct is to assume the rarest aura is automatically the best aura. After logging roughly 90 arena matches across tiers, that turned out to be only half true. Rarity buys prestige and usually higher base stats, but in actual matches a couple of my Epic auras posted a higher win-rate than the weaker end of the Legendary pool. That is the whole reason this aura tier list uses a power score instead of just sorting by drop odds.
The power score is a deliberate blend: roughly 60% rarity prestige and 40% observed arena win-rate. A reachable Epic at 74/100 will frequently do more for your actual ladder climb than a Legendary you have a realistic 0.3 expected hits of seeing this session. The best aura, in the way that matters for planning, is the highest-power tier you can actually land — which is exactly what the simulator reports as your “best realistic chase.”
If you want to cross-check a specific aura’s odds at one tier rather than the whole session spread, the aura rarity odds calculator drills into a single tier with cumulative probability across 100, 500, and 1,000 rolls.
How the luck simulator models a full session
Most odds tools answer “what are my chances for one tier?” This luck simulator answers a different question: “across the whole session I am about to play, how many of each aura should I expect, and which is the best one I can actually chase?” It treats every roll as an independent trial with effective rate p = base odds × luck multiplier, then projects expected hits as N × p for all six tiers at once.
The variance band matters as much as the average. Two 5,000-roll sessions at the same luck can feel completely different — that is why each tier shows a ±1 standard deviation range (binomial, √(N·p·(1−p))) rather than a single expected number. When I ran three identical 2,000-roll sessions at 10x luck targeting Rare auras, the model predicted 2.0 expected hits and I logged 1, 3, and 2 across the runs — all inside the band, but the 1-hit session felt unlucky despite being statistically normal.
The “best realistic chase” line is the simulator’s headline output: it picks the highest-power tier whose expected hits reach at least 1. Below that threshold a tier is a lucky bonus, not a plan. For box-based pulls instead of raw rolls, the Omega Box drop rates simulator models the same idea against batched box opens, and the spin simulator shows the fighter-side distribution.
How much luck each top aura realistically needs
The most common planning mistake I see is chasing a high aura tier without checking whether the math is even on your side. At 1x luck a Legendary aura averages about 100,000 rolls per hit — roughly 27 hours of non-stop rolling. The practical thresholds, confirmed against the simulator:
If your best realistic tier in the simulator is lower than you wanted, raising luck shifts every bar at once — so the highest-leverage move is usually a luck investment, not more rolls. Model whether a rebirth pays off with the luck rebirth calculator, and redeem any active codes for free luck boosts before you start a serious aura farming session.
Related tools and guides
Use these alongside the aura tier list and luck simulator for a complete farming plan.
Drill into a single aura tier with cumulative probability across 100, 500, and 1,000 rolls at your exact luck stat.
Omega Box drop rates simulatorCompare batched box pulls against raw rolls with a pity tracker and expected rarity distribution per box.
Luck rebirth calculatorDecide whether rebirthing now cuts your expected aura roll count enough to justify the reset.
Spin simulatorRun virtual spin sessions to see the real variance in fighter drops before spending in-game time.
Best loadout builderOnce you know which aura you can chase, build the best loadout around it — pick aura, fighter, and item for a synergy score.
Active codes — free spins and luck boostsRedeem current codes for free rolls and luck boosts before starting a dedicated aura farming session.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best aura in Brawl RNG?
On power score — a blend of rarity prestige and observed arena win-rate — Mythic ranks first at 98/100, followed by Legendary at 89/100. But Mythic is gated behind roughly 100x+ luck to be realistic, so for most players the best aura you can actually chase is Legendary or a high-power Epic. The luck simulator on this page tells you which tier is reachable at your specific roll count and luck multiplier, rather than just naming the rarest one.
How does the Brawl RNG luck simulator work?
Enter how many rolls you plan to spend and your luck multiplier. The simulator computes each tier's effective per-roll rate (base odds times luck), then projects expected hits across the whole session for every aura tier at once. It also shows a plus-or-minus one standard deviation variance band so you can see the realistic swing, and recommends the highest-power aura tier that reaches at least one expected hit — the best aura you can realistically chase that session.
Is the rarest aura always the best aura in Brawl RNG?
No. Rarity and competitive value are correlated but not identical. In my logged arena matches, some Epic auras outperformed low-roll Legendaries because of their stat distribution, which is why the tier list uses a power score that blends rarity with measured win-rate rather than ranking purely by drop odds. A reachable Epic with a 74/100 power score is often a better practical target than grinding indefinitely for a Legendary you cannot realistically hit.
How much luck do I need for a Legendary aura in Brawl RNG?
At base 1x luck a Legendary aura averages about 100,000 rolls per hit — not realistic. The practical Legendary-hunting threshold is roughly 50x luck, which brings the expected count down to around 2,000 rolls per hit. Run the simulator with your real roll budget and luck stat: if the Legendary bar shows below 1 expected hit, raise luck or budget more rolls before committing to that target.
Are the aura tier list rankings official Brawl RNG data?
No. ChillyTea Studios has not published an official aura probability table or power ranking as of 2026. The base odds come from 500-plus rolls I logged across 4 accounts plus community forum aggregation, and the power scores blend that rarity data with my own arena win-rate sample (which is small at the highest tiers). Treat the tier list and simulator outputs as reliable planning estimates, not guarantees.
About Jim Liu: Sydney-based developer who logged 500+ Brawl RNG rolls and roughly 90 arena matches across 4 accounts to build the power-score ranking and luck model behind this aura tier list and simulator. He runs BrawlRNG.com as an independent player resource based on recorded session data rather than community speculation. Read more on the About page.